Truth Consequences, New Mexico 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

823
FXUS64 KEPZ 200522
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
Issued by National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1122 PM MDT Wed Aug 19 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1119 PM MDT Wed Aug 19 2026

 - Above normal temperatures across southern New Mexico and far west
   Texas through the week ahead. Lowland highs in the upper 90s
   to lower 100s, near daily records.

 - Isolated showers and thunderstorms Thursday and Friday. Storm
   limited mostly to the high terrain and western New Mexico. Dry
   conditions spread area wide over the weekend and into next
   week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1119 PM MDT Wed Aug 19 2026

High pressure aloft centered over the Four Corners will be the
primary driver of our weather pattern over the next several days.
Thunderstorm development through Friday will be mostly driven by
recycled moisture under this upper high.

The main headline will be above normal temperatures, which looks
to stay in place through the rest of August. Lowland highs
consistently in the 98-102 degree range will run 8-10 degrees
above normal for late August and near daily records. Currently no
daily record for El Paso in the forecast, but were only 1-2
degrees off most days going forward.

For Thursday, short-term models resolve an axis of
more favorable moisture (PWs 1.0-1.2) across eastern and
south-central New Mexico. Daytime heating will be enough to
produce isolated (20-30%) showers and thunderstorms during the
afternoon and evening hours. Best chances will focus over the
southwestern rim of the Sacramento Mountains (Timberon area)
and Black Range/Mimbres Valley where terrain lift is strongest
under weak mid-level flow out of the east. Cant rule out spotty
rain showers for lowland zones, including El Paso and west Texas.
Coverage will be sparce and storms will be fairly weak due to
model CAPE in the 500-800 J/kg range. Storm motions will
move WSW at 10-15 mph, likely quick enough to reduce flood risk
somewhat. Isolated rain chances will continue over the high
terrain and western New Mexico on Friday, but much of the Rio
Grande Valley will be dry.

Upper high drifts east directly over the Southern High Plains
this weekend, leading to a near-total shut off of moisture
flow and the end of storm chances area wide. Precipitable
water values 0.8-1.0 will fall below the climate normals and
strong subsident flow within the 400-600mb layer aloft will hinder
updraft development. The primary monsoonal plume will be pushed
west across Arizona and the Colorado River valley. This pattern
looks to remain in place throughout next week, leading to an
extended period of late-August dryness and heat.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1119 PM MDT Wed Aug 19 2026

Skies FEW-SCT120, SCT-BKN200 overnight due to diminishing TS.
Surface winds 330-020 at 5 to 10 knots, with a few gusts up
to 20KT next couple hours due to outflows. Light NE flow tomorrow
afternoon, generally 050-100 at 4 to 8 knots. Isolated TSRA
across SW NM and W TX between 20-00Z Thursday evening. Temporary
-TSRA and gusts up to 30 knots possible around TS. PROB30 TS
included at all local terminals for that timeframe tomorrow.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1230 PM MDT Wed Aug 19 2026

No critical fire weather conditions expected through early next
week. Scattered thunderstorms development across the Gila and Sacramento
Mountains each afternoon and early evening through Friday with a
general motion to the west-southwest today and tomorrow and to
the west-northwest Friday into nearby lower elevations. Gusty and
erratic outflow winds along with brief downpours and frequent
lightning are expected with any storm. Meanwhile, mainly dry with
near record high temperatures across the lowlands. Minimal storm
coverage across the Gila and Sacramento Mountains this weekend
into early next week as the upper high moves over eastern New
Mexico and West Texas this weekend before pivoting back west to
over central New Mexico next week. Fair to good ventilation today
and tomorrow before becoming good to very good Friday into early
next week. Minimum relative humidity values in the mid teens
across the lowlands and 20s across the higher terrain.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  73 101  75 102 /   0  10  10   0
Sierra Blanca            67  97  67  98 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces               69  99  70 100 /   0  10  20   0
Alamogordo               71  98  71  98 /   0  20  10  10
Cloudcroft               54  76  54  75 /   0  30  10  30
Truth or Consequences    72  99  72  99 /  10  20  20   0
Silver City              63  93  63  93 /  10  30  20  10
Deming                   69 102  71 101 /   0  10  20   0
Lordsburg                69  99  70 100 /  10  20  20   0
West El Paso Metro       75 101  77 102 /   0  10  10   0
Dell City                70 100  70 100 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock             74 104  74 104 /   0  10  10   0
Loma Linda               70  95  70  95 /   0  10  10   0
Fabens                   72 101  73 102 /   0  10  10   0
Santa Teresa             71  99  73 100 /   0  10  10   0
White Sands HQ           75 100  76 101 /   0  10  20   0
Jornada Range            71  99  71 100 /   0  20  20   0
Hatch                    71 102  72 103 /   0  20  20   0
Columbus                 74 102  75 102 /   0  10  20   0
Orogrande                69  98  70  99 /   0  10  10   0
Mayhill                  59  88  59  87 /   0  20  10  30
Mescalero                58  88  58  86 /  10  40  10  40
Timberon                 57  86  57  85 /   0  20  10  20
Winston                  62  91  62  90 /  20  20  20  30
Hillsboro                69  99  70  98 /  10  20  20  10
Spaceport                69  99  69  99 /  10  20  20   0
Lake Roberts             58  91  57  91 /  10  50  20  30
Hurley                   64  96  65  96 /  10  30  20  10
Cliff                    66  99  66 100 /  10  30  20  10
Mule Creek               64  95  64  96 /  20  30  20  10
Faywood                  67  96  68  95 /  10  30  20  10
Animas                   70 100  70 100 /   0  20  20   0
Hachita                  69  99  70  99 /   0  20  20   0
Antelope Wells           68  99  70  99 /   0  10  20   0
Cloverdale               65  93  67  95 /  10  20  20  10

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...99-Guest